Hurricane Gustav continues to head toward Louisiana this morning. Landfall as a major hurricane is expected tomorrow around noon. Unlike some recent hurricanes that have weakened prior to landfall along the north gulf coast (Katrina is the most recent example) it appears that won't be the case with Gus. Strengthening is expected today as Gus heads over the warm water of the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane warnings for all of Louisiana were hoisted this morning, and the city of New Orleans has told everyone to get out now. Local impacts include the wind and outer bands of rain during the day today.

Bigger local story is Hanna. Clearly, Hanna doesn't look like much when viewed from satellite. She's been in a hostile environment for the last few days, and little strengthening is expected over the next three days as she wanders somewhat aimlessly toward the Bahamas. Even more shear--this time from north to south-- is expected over Hanna in the 2-4 day period, but the computer guidance doesn't predict Hanna to weaken very much while moving a little toward the south.

At this point, the modeling becomes a little more interesting. All of the models turn Hanna toward the north or northwest. Many of them have this turn occurring east of the Bahamas, such that Hanna passes off to our east. One model takes Hanna farther south (to Cuba) than all the rest; the resulting track takes the storm over Florida but to our west. The sooner the turn toward the north begins, the less likely Hanna will prove to be a problem for us. It might be a couple more days before we figure that out though.

Gus marching in? TD#8 forms

Tropical Storm Gustav has strengthened and moved south this morning. The strengthening (now 70 MPH and 988 mb) was expected as Gus pulled away from land. The jog/relocation south was not expected; the short term track now has Gus passing south of Jamaica instead of to the north. It is expected to turn toward the west today, however if it goes much further south, a Mexican landfall comes back into play. The long term track still points Gus to New Orleans, potentially allowing that city to test their new evacuation plans. I also noticed pump prices at the local WalMart gas station jumped a dime this morning.

Of more immediate concern locally is newly form Tropical Depression 8 which will probably be Tropical Storm Hanna in the next 24-36 hours. Previously I thought this would curve harmlessly out to sea, and it still may do that since, historically, many storms that cross 20 north latitude at 58 west longitude pose little threat to Florida. For now, the models basically point Hanna toward us, so it bears continued watching. Currently there is (and has been for the last few days) an upper-level low to the west of TD#8 disrupting the storm; this low is forecast to weaken and allow TD#8 to strengthen.

A ridge of high pressure is forecast to build in from the north and block the poleward path of TD#8/Hanna (stop me if you've heard that before) in about 3 days. Forecasting the strength, location, and movement of this ridge for now seems to be the critical part of the forecast, and, of course, all the usual caviats regarding model forecasts of newly formed tropical cyclones apply. This morning's 5 day forecast position is still 600 miles to our east, and at that point Hanna is expected to be moving very slowly, so there is no immediate threat. Just keep watching

Gus is interesting, but make sure you look east

Gustav will be the big story over the weekend, but please keep your eyes looking east too.

Gus made landfall on the southwestern coast of Haiti yesterday as a hurricane. He has since weakened to a tropical storm with 60 MPH winds due to land interactions. The current forecast has Gus moving along the southern Cuban coast, cross the extreme western tip of Cuba, and then essentially head for the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast as a major hurricane. Buy...Gas...Now...

The bigger local threat is from the broad area of low pressure several hundred miles northeast of the northern Leeward islands. This area is expected to develop later this week as the upper-level winds become more favorable in that part of the world. While most of the models recurve this system between 65 and 70 degrees west longitude (i.e., well off our coast) we do have one model that indicates a threat to our area in about 8 days. You don't need to board up now, but you do need to watch it.

Hop on the bus, Gus

We've got ourselves a hurricane. Probably gonna be a bigun too by the time all is said and done.

Gustav ("Gus") was upgraded to a hurricane at this morning's 5 AM advisory. Maximum sustained winds are 85 MPH, and reading the Hurricane Center's thinking this morning one gets the impression it might very well be stronger than that. Central pressure is 984 mb.

Gus is moving toward the northwest at 9 MPH. Over the past day or so Gus was moving northward in response to a low pressure system to its north and a ridge of high pressure its east. This low pressure system has moved on to the east and has been replaced with a strengthening ridge of high pressure that is now located to the north of Gus. Accordingly, we expect Gus to slow its forward speed and turn toward the left (west). The official forecast grazes the southwestern coast Haiti, and then moves south of Cuba hitting the very western end of Cuba in 5 days. All of the model guidance is fairly well south of this forecast track, and the hurricane center acknowledges their track might be too far to the north. Given the natural inclination on their part to slowly modify forecast tracks (something that has served them very well over the years) this was a fairly significant shift on their part. If they moved their tracks as wildly as some of the models do, one day we'd have them warning Boston and the next day Houston. At any rate, look for a track modification to the south with subsequent forecasts.

Beyond 5 days, of course is a crapshoot (that would be why "errors may be large" accompanies every 5 day forecast, and no forecasts are made beyond that). There is, of course the good chance Gus hits the Yucatan. If Gus emerges farther north into the Gulf of Mexico, then it gets interesting. Anywhere from the FL Panhandle to Mexico would be possible locations for landfall. My guess is for the Yucatan, but I'm not always right about these things. Central Florida seems relatively safe for now.

Strength, again, is a little easier. The water is warm, the shear is low, Gus is getting its act together, so I see no reason why we won't have a major cane on our hands in a couple days, provided Gus refuses the temptations of landmasses.

There is another area of interest to the east of Puerto Rico. This area is expected to recurve well east of our area and present no problems for us.