Irene blows off the cobwebs

Well, it has been quite some time since I've made a posting here; IMO a good thing as that means we haven't been threatened very much in three years. As I blow the cobwebs off the blog, please understand all the links to the right will be slowly updated (webmasters like to move links around every now and then).

Irene seemingly posed much more of a threat to us yesterday than it does today. Extra weather observations over the Atlantic and the US were loaded into the suite of weather forecast models last night, and the resulting forecasts all take Irene east of Florida. The Bahamas will take a direct hit for sure, but it seems Florida will be spared. Where (if?) Irene makes landfall along the east coast is still to be determined; when hurricanes parallel the east coast, little wiggles in the track can make a huge difference in the impact felt, making the forecast a bit more interesting.

The intensity forecast is fairly straight forward. The ocean is warm and the wind shear is low, so it is hard to envision a scenario where Irene does not become a major (category 3) storm. Most forecasts make her a Cat 4, but she might make it to a 5 before all is said and done.

Impacts to us here in Florida aren't too bad, once you become comfortable with a Cat4/5 major hurricane 100-150 miles to your east. Conditions will begin to deteriorate here on Thursday afternoon and Friday; mostly clouds, occasional showers, and winds possible to tropical storm force (esp. beach side). Once Irene moves away from us, conditions should begin to improve starting late Friday.