Gus marching in? TD#8 forms

Tropical Storm Gustav has strengthened and moved south this morning. The strengthening (now 70 MPH and 988 mb) was expected as Gus pulled away from land. The jog/relocation south was not expected; the short term track now has Gus passing south of Jamaica instead of to the north. It is expected to turn toward the west today, however if it goes much further south, a Mexican landfall comes back into play. The long term track still points Gus to New Orleans, potentially allowing that city to test their new evacuation plans. I also noticed pump prices at the local WalMart gas station jumped a dime this morning.

Of more immediate concern locally is newly form Tropical Depression 8 which will probably be Tropical Storm Hanna in the next 24-36 hours. Previously I thought this would curve harmlessly out to sea, and it still may do that since, historically, many storms that cross 20 north latitude at 58 west longitude pose little threat to Florida. For now, the models basically point Hanna toward us, so it bears continued watching. Currently there is (and has been for the last few days) an upper-level low to the west of TD#8 disrupting the storm; this low is forecast to weaken and allow TD#8 to strengthen.

A ridge of high pressure is forecast to build in from the north and block the poleward path of TD#8/Hanna (stop me if you've heard that before) in about 3 days. Forecasting the strength, location, and movement of this ridge for now seems to be the critical part of the forecast, and, of course, all the usual caviats regarding model forecasts of newly formed tropical cyclones apply. This morning's 5 day forecast position is still 600 miles to our east, and at that point Hanna is expected to be moving very slowly, so there is no immediate threat. Just keep watching