Hanna coming close, Ike on the way

No, I haven't boarded up and left town. Just been busy at a soccer tournament and dealing with a sick cat...

Hanna is back down to a tropical storm this morning, with maximum sustained winds at 70 MPH and a central pressure of 987 mb. Hanna was in the right place at the right time yesterday with respect to the upper-level shear pattern--the shear actually helped to vent the top of the storm and allow the thunderstorms to blow up (if you will). The shear pattern has shifted today, and is now basically blowing the tops toward the southeast. The cyclone has lost some of its structure and kinda looks like, well, a big blob.

The upper-level shear from the north is not expected to move the low-level center toward the south. Hanna is wandering toward the west at 2 MPH. The low-level steering currents have collapsed as forecast. The current forecast expects Hanna to begin moving toward the northwest overnight tonight as a surface high pressure ridge builds in to the northeast of Hanna. Once Hanna begins to move, she should continue to pick up speed, and pass by our coast early Friday morning. This forecast brings tropical storm force winds to our area Thursday night into Friday morning. We might get another hurricane day on Thursday or Friday, depending upon how the forecast pans out.

The problem with the current forecast concerns how far Hanna drifts to the west before the turn toward the north begins. Obviously, the further west she goes, the closer to Florida she gets, which makes a bigger problem for us. The forecast becomes a lot easier once the motion to the north begins. None of the forecast models have Hanna making landfall south of Melbourne, and most indicate landfall somewhere in South Carolina. However, one little wiggle here or there could create a lot of problems for Florida, since Hanna will be moving parallel to our coast.

Tropical Storm Ike formed yesterday. This forecast remains rather uncomplicated, a rarity for us over the last few weeks. Ike is booking to the west at 15 MPH and should be located in the southern Bahamas (basically where Hanna is this morning) in 5 days--recurvature into the Atlantic seems rather unlikely. The fast motion toward the west is expected to continue, meaning that a huge change in direction would be unlikely (hurricanes moving at 15 MPH don't stop on a dime and change direction). For now, Ike would appear to be a threat to the eastern Gulf of Mexico in about 10 days, but we have to watch that one too.

And then there's TD#10, which should recurve out into the open Atlantic and give us a breather.

Edit: Fixed central pressure measurement.