Hop on the bus, Gus

We've got ourselves a hurricane. Probably gonna be a bigun too by the time all is said and done.

Gustav ("Gus") was upgraded to a hurricane at this morning's 5 AM advisory. Maximum sustained winds are 85 MPH, and reading the Hurricane Center's thinking this morning one gets the impression it might very well be stronger than that. Central pressure is 984 mb.

Gus is moving toward the northwest at 9 MPH. Over the past day or so Gus was moving northward in response to a low pressure system to its north and a ridge of high pressure its east. This low pressure system has moved on to the east and has been replaced with a strengthening ridge of high pressure that is now located to the north of Gus. Accordingly, we expect Gus to slow its forward speed and turn toward the left (west). The official forecast grazes the southwestern coast Haiti, and then moves south of Cuba hitting the very western end of Cuba in 5 days. All of the model guidance is fairly well south of this forecast track, and the hurricane center acknowledges their track might be too far to the north. Given the natural inclination on their part to slowly modify forecast tracks (something that has served them very well over the years) this was a fairly significant shift on their part. If they moved their tracks as wildly as some of the models do, one day we'd have them warning Boston and the next day Houston. At any rate, look for a track modification to the south with subsequent forecasts.

Beyond 5 days, of course is a crapshoot (that would be why "errors may be large" accompanies every 5 day forecast, and no forecasts are made beyond that). There is, of course the good chance Gus hits the Yucatan. If Gus emerges farther north into the Gulf of Mexico, then it gets interesting. Anywhere from the FL Panhandle to Mexico would be possible locations for landfall. My guess is for the Yucatan, but I'm not always right about these things. Central Florida seems relatively safe for now.

Strength, again, is a little easier. The water is warm, the shear is low, Gus is getting its act together, so I see no reason why we won't have a major cane on our hands in a couple days, provided Gus refuses the temptations of landmasses.

There is another area of interest to the east of Puerto Rico. This area is expected to recurve well east of our area and present no problems for us.