Georgia on my mind

But first...Hanna. Currently she's about 100 miles east of us, bringing some rain and wind to our area. She is moving toward the northwest at 18 MPH and she is expected to increase her forward speed during the day. Implication here is that conditions should improve as the day goes on. I received an inch of rain overnight, and looking at the drainage around the neighborhood this morning it's clear the soil remains rather saturated--there is much more pooling of water from an inch of rain than I normally see.

Ike is behaving according to plan. Shear from the north has weakened Ike down to a Cat 3 storm with estimated maximum sustained winds of 125 MPH. Central pressure is estimated to be 945 mb; a plane will be sampling Ike later this afternoon to provide more accurate values for these parameters. The eye is near the northern edge of the convection, reflecting the effect of the upper-level shear.

Ike is supposed to begin it's turn toward the south and west today and, in fact, appears to have already begun this turn. The amount of wavyness (or, if you'd rather, the amplitude of the sine wave-like track) in the official forecast track has decreased today compared to yesterday. Additionally, the forecast models are trending south and west with their tracks. The official 5 day forecast point is now south of Miami, which reflects the forecast model trends to build in the surface ridge over the Atlantic stronger than previously anticipated. This morning, the majority of model tracks are south of this area and many of them miss the peninsula to the south (the Keys are another story). One fairly reliable model has been forecasting landfall along the northern Gulf Coast for the last few model cycles. For now, the feeling is it may pass to our south and west, but we really won't have a good idea until Sunday morning.

The shear should relax in about 24 hours. Thereafter, it is difficult to find an argument against intensification, and Ike is expected to be a major hurricane in 5 days.

This is the time to begin to review your personal plans, just in case you need to take action. We have secured hotel reservations in Savannah for the middle of next week. Keep in mind this does not mean we're planning to beat feet out of here, just that I've got a place in case I need to. Hotel reservations can always be canceled. The shutters remain in the garage for now. Decisions should be clearer on Sunday morning.