I don't like Ike

Hanna no longer appears to be a threat to our area. The turn to the north has finally begun (moving NW at 12 MPH) and she is sufficiently far away from our coast that she shouldn't pose a wind or rain threat. Rip currents might be a concern--in fact it would be best to simply look at the ocean instead of venturing into it for the next few days.

My focus turns now to Ike, a Cat 4 storm (145 MPH) churning in the open Atlantic and moving west at 17 MPH. Central pressure is 935 mb on satellite this morning Ike looks like a classic hurricane. The uncomplicated part of the forecast is in the next 2 days: Ike is forecast to move in a west or just south of west direction to a position near the southern Bahamas by Sunday morning. Some increase in strength is possible over the next day before Ike enters a shearing environment during the afternoon tomorrow, which would induce some weakening, yet still maintain Ike as a major hurricane.

Once near the Bahamas (on Sunday) forward speed slows and a turn toward the northwest begins. The exact location where this turn begins is impossible to predict this far in advance, though it obviously has severe ramifications for coastal impacts. Many of the models are hinting at a recurvature just off to our east in about 6-7 days, but we need to get a little closer to the event to be certain of that. Even if recurvature occurs, Ike should still be a major hurricane in 6-7 days.