Hurricane Gustav continues to head toward Louisiana this morning. Landfall as a major hurricane is expected tomorrow around noon. Unlike some recent hurricanes that have weakened prior to landfall along the north gulf coast (Katrina is the most recent example) it appears that won't be the case with Gus. Strengthening is expected today as Gus heads over the warm water of the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane warnings for all of Louisiana were hoisted this morning, and the city of New Orleans has told everyone to get out now. Local impacts include the wind and outer bands of rain during the day today.

Bigger local story is Hanna. Clearly, Hanna doesn't look like much when viewed from satellite. She's been in a hostile environment for the last few days, and little strengthening is expected over the next three days as she wanders somewhat aimlessly toward the Bahamas. Even more shear--this time from north to south-- is expected over Hanna in the 2-4 day period, but the computer guidance doesn't predict Hanna to weaken very much while moving a little toward the south.

At this point, the modeling becomes a little more interesting. All of the models turn Hanna toward the north or northwest. Many of them have this turn occurring east of the Bahamas, such that Hanna passes off to our east. One model takes Hanna farther south (to Cuba) than all the rest; the resulting track takes the storm over Florida but to our west. The sooner the turn toward the north begins, the less likely Hanna will prove to be a problem for us. It might be a couple more days before we figure that out though.