It's not all about hurricanes

Well, we'll slip in a small tropical note...anyone notice Beta became the 8th major hurricane of the season briefly before it slammed into Nicaragua?

Halloween pictures! First up is the youngest hodo-son preping for the elementary school Kindergarden Scarecrow parade:


Next we have the older hodo-son as a dead soccer player:


And finally we've got the young one as Darth Vader:

Wally gas hits $2.54

The Wally Gas Index (the price per gallon at the corner Wal-Mart) made it below it's pre-Katrina price ($2.56) on Saturday. Still sad to say that the two places I've found the cheapest gas in the last three months were at the Dulles Airport Exxon (2.38 in August) and on Disney property (2.46) yesterday. Prices are still running slightly above the national average here; typically they run a little below the national avg.

Beta testing

And then we have Tropical Storm Beta, currently developing in the far southwestern Caribbean Sea. Expected to make landfall in Nicaragua as a minimal hurricane, Beta is the 23rd named storm of the 2005 Atlantic season.

There is another tropical wave moving into the Lesser Antilles today. This one could develop over the next couple days as upper-level winds become a it more favorable for development. Early, early indications are that this will head west into Central America.

Damage assessment

An extremely unscientific survey of the damage indicates not too much damage around these parts. Around my neighborhood, there is in fact very little damage. The occasional small shrub has been toppled, but certainly not the roof damage I saw last year.

Venturing out, some plastic sign damage (the kind with fluorescent lights behind them, like at most gas stations) was noted, but certainly not as bad as in the past. A couple of traffic lights were bent (but still functioning), and only a couple others were not working.

The southern part of the county appears to have taken a harder hit; not unexpected since they were closer to the storm center. Power outages are more common there, as is the flooding. However, Palm Bay has never drained very well, so flooding isn't unexpected there.

Flooding was also noted in the north part of the county. My Mother lives in Pt St John, and she had an awful lot of water get rather close to her house. Fortunately, the water had drained off by Tuesday morning. Part of the flooding problem results from the fact that the Melbourne airport is currently 14+ inches of rainfall above normal for the year to date.

The NWS Melbourne is producing a Wilma summary report. Currently the page has mostly placeholder links, but will be updated over the next couple weeks. They have captured all of the radar images and made one big loop (a very dial-up unfriendly download).

Wilma photos

I ventured outside (wall to the left is shielding me from the north wind)...had to pump down the pool (again). Rainfall amount is up to 4.72 inches today.

View from upstairs in the hodo-house facing east.

The back edge of the rain is almost through Orlando. At 1 PM Orlando is down to 59 degrees, amd Melbourne is down to 67 with a wind out of the northwest. Cooler and drier air isn't far away. Quick check around up and down the street indicates little to no damage here, which isn't a surprise, but comforting nonetheless.

Winds start to turn...bring on the cold stuff!

The eye is halfway off shore at West Palm (Miami radar). She continues in that direction at 25 MPH.

The cold stuff (well, Florida cold) isn't too far away. At 10AM it was 62 in Orlando and 79 in Melbourne. The wind here is turning from an easterly direction (blowing from the east to the west) to a northerly direction. Once the wind direction becomes northerly, the speed will pick up; probably the strongest wind speeds so far today outside right now from the north. So far, 3.48 inches of rain here today.

So far, not too bad

Overnight Wilma continued to strengthen, making it to 125 MPH (cat 3) at landfall near Naples at 6:30 AM ET. Clearly the upper-level wind shear did not affect Wilma as forecast. The eye is clearly visible on Miami radar. As I type, it is roughly halfway across southern Florida, moving to the NE at 23 MPH. Miami recently reported a 104 MPH gust.

Biggest problem in these parts have been the tornadoes. My weather radio went off a few times last night for tornado warnings, none directly near me. There has been some damage assesment from last night's tornadoes; damage doesn't initially appear to be too bad. My raingauge has caught about 2.5 inches of rain since midnight. Right now I'm in between rainbands and the trees are barely moving.

If the wind shear forecast wasn't the greatest, the track forecast has been pretty darn good. The landfall forecast was at Naples, and the east coast exit point of West Palm appears like it might be a bit too far north. The back edge of Wilma is visible on the Melbourne radar currently just coming onshore north of Tampa.

Here she comes...

At 5 PM, everything appears to be progressing as forecast this morning. Wilma is now moving at 14 MPH to the NE, and she'll be picking up speed overnight. Winds have bumped up slightly to 105 MPH and the pressure has dropped a bit to 959 mb. The shear currently near the storm is weaker than forecast, so Wilma will most likely continue to gradually strengthen until landfall in SW Florida tomorrow morning. She might be a Cat 3 (115 MPH is the threshold) at landfall, but quibbling over 10 MPH of wind speed seems a bit trivial at this point.

As expected, once the turn began, the computer models are in rather good agreement on a track through south Florida tomorrow. Expectations remain that she'll spend only 6 hours or so over FL during the day tomorrow.

Here in Melbourne, the forecast for sustained 60 MPH winds, with gusts to 75 MPH (cat 1) still look good. Biggest threat will be from tornadoes; we'll be in a tornado watch until tomorrow afternoon, and there have already been confirmed tornadoes in Polk County and east of Yeehaw Junction this evening. If you've got a weather radio handy, you might want to make sure it's turned on for the next couple of days.

One neat thing about all this is the cold, dry air that will rush in here on the western edge of Wilma. Forecast lows on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings are near 50. The record low for Tuesday morning is 51 (1982) and 48 (1990) for Wednesday. We're back to normal (80's/mid 60's) by Thursday.

Weather in the northeast US is likely to be extremely poor for the remainder of the week, as the remains of Wilma combine with Tropical Depression Alpha, and possibly merge with the trough of low pressure currently turning Wilma to create a huge low pressure mess (highly technical term there) in that part of the country.

Hurricane warnings issued; schools closed tomorrow

Wilma finally emerged off the Mexican coast last night a few hours ahead of the forecast. Some of the outer rainbands are still battering Cozumel and Cancun; some of these locations have had hurricane conditions for the last two days. Pictures from this region over the next couple of days will reveal incredible destruction.

This morning (5 AM) Wilma is a Cat 2/100 MPH hurricane. Central pressure is up to 961 mb. The turn to the northeast has begun: movement is toward the NE at 3 MPH. The time spent in Mexico has disrupted the inner core of Wilma. Satellite loops and the hurricane hunters report the eye is a bit ragged and measures about 70 miles in diameter. Wilma currently has a non-symmetric cloud pattern: much of the convection is displaced off to the northeast of the center, possibly indicative of a tug toward the northeast by the upper-level wind patterns.

Wilma should begin to move faster toward the northeast today. Strengthening today is not a foregone conclusion, though it is possible. The central pressure hasn't changed since Wilma moved off the Yucatan last Saturday evening, indicating she's still getting her bearings. Some have also speculated she is in another eyewall replacement cycle, which would argue against strengthening in the short term until that is complete.

However, short term strengthening is basically all she's got left. After too much more time, she will encounter the increased wind shear of the large upper-level pressure trough which will push her quickly through the state, but not allow any substantial strengthening. There is also dry air to the west of Wilma, which also argues against strengthening. However, she is over warm water, so she could strengthen back to a Cat 3 hurricane today. The official forecast does not anticipate much strengthening, and Cat 2 at landfall in SW Florida is the official forecast.

Like I said yesterday, Wilma emerging from the Yucatan a little early isn't the best news for us, the argument being she'd have more time to drift north before heading east. She didn't miss the forecast by too much (a couple hours) so it's probably not too bad for us. The model guidance has shifted south from yesterday a little bit, and the official forecast has also drifted south. The forecast track is now south of Lake Okeechobee, and the east coast exit point is also a little south of the previous position.

The mutant circle map indicates we can expect Tropical Storm force winds beginning tomorrow morning. The 50 knot (58 mph) circle is also lurking about our area, and the forecast calls for hurricane force winds in southern Brevard county. Obviously a small northward track deviation could make things a bit more "exciting" for us. Expectation is that by late tomorrow afternoon, the winds will have subsided.

As of 5 AM, we are under a Hurricane Warning. Brevard County schools have already been closed for Monday, and some of the shelters will open today at 10 AM for the mandatory evacuation of mobile home and manufactured housing residents. Evacuation of the barrier islands does not appear imminent, however the causeways might be closed for a few hours tomorrow (honestly, who wants to be on top of a causeway in 60+ mph winds?).

Watches up for the Keys; Here comes Alpha

At 11 AM the Hurricane Center hoisted Hurricane watches for all of the Keys. Hints indicating that the watches will be extended northward were also dropped. Keep in mind that, at a minimum, we'll see Tropical Storm warnings and Hurricane watches for our part of the coast before this is all over.

Wilma is still on land, drifting slowly northward. Winds are down to 115 MPH, and the pressure is up to 946 mb. She is still expected to emerge from the Yucatan overnight tonight.

Official forecasts for Florida are essentially unchanged. Some of the models (alas, not models represented on the model track link on the right side of this page) are begining to hint at a track that is south of the official advisory, which would be good news for points north (us).

I've edited the previous post regarding the "mutant circle" wind thresholds on the Navy tracking chart. The circles are the forecast radii for 34 (tropical storm force), 50, and 64 (hurricane force) knot winds, respectively.

And then we have Tropical Depression 25, currently located south of Puerto Rico. This will probably be our next tropical storm later today; since we have exhausted the Atlantic names for 2005, we will begin to use the Greek alphabet to name storms for the rest of the year, making this one "Alpha". TD25 should be swept out to sea by the same upper level trough that will sweep Wilma past us on Monday.

Yucatan blasted; Wilma here Monday or Tuesday

A quick note this morning...I've got an 8AM soccer game this morning, and, as the 8 year old in the house has noticed, I don't type very quickly or correctly. :-)

Wilma this morning is over the very northeastern tip of the Yucatan. Max wind speeds are now 125 mph (Cat 3), and the central pressure is up to 935 mb (all as of 5 AM Saturday). Movement is nearly stationary, and a slow northward drift is expected during the day today. She made landfall on the Yucatan last night around 11 PM ET. The island of Cozumel was in the eye yesterday for about 7-10 hours, and some portions of the Yucatan have been reporting nearly 100 mph winds for the last 10 hours. Damage there is likely to be catastrophic.

Satellite images of Wilma this morning look a lot worse than she did yesterday morning. The eye is no longer visible on satellite, but can be located on radar images and in the surface reports. The areal extent of the high cloud tops (crudly indicative of the intense thunderstorms) has decreased. Dry air (bad for hurricanes) is located directly west of the storm.

From a "Florida-centric" viewpoint, the main question remains when will she emerge from Mexico and head our way? There is a ridge of high pressure to the north of Wilma that is basically keeping her over the Yucatan. Forecasting the movement of small-scale ridges like this one has obviously been an issue for everyone (humans and computers) all week. The official forecast has Wilma emerging from the Yucatan around midnight Sunday, and progressing across Florida during the day on Monday over the exact same forecast path (Naples to West Palm) as over the last 4 days.

Should this ridge keep Wilma over the Yucatan longer than Midnight tonight (which is a possibility) we would expect the storm to be weaker (longer interaction with land), the track across Florida would be further south; perhaps as far south as the Keys as late as Tuesday. Once again, what's bad for Mexico is good for Melbourne. Conversly, a faster emergence of Wilma over water will result in a stronger storm that could track closer to us late Sunday or on Monday. Based on the official track, we're still expecting tropical strom force winds here Monday.

A note about the track: As you've heard many times, the track isn't as important as is the wind field swath. The Navy tracking map link on the right has a confusing mass of mutant circles on it. These circles are actually the forecast radii of various wind speeds. The outer (black) circle is tropical storm force winds, the red circle is 50 knot (58 mph) winds. There is a third inner black circle representing hurricane force winds.

Finally, some have asked for an RSS type feed to this blog, so you don't have to keep visiting. I've added a feedburner feed icon on the bottom right which is supposed to allow readers to subscribe; I've never used this before, so comments, suggestions, and feedback are welcome.

(Edit to correct wind speed radii)

Still not sure when she'll get here

First real post in the new blog. We'll try this disemmination method instead of the email route. Theoretically, this method should work much better over the weekend. Comments are welcome.

This morning we find Wilma to be a Cat 4/150 mph hurricane moving to the NNW at 6 MPH. Central pressure has risen to 923 mb. She spent yesterday in an eyewall replacement cycle, which is now complete, so strengthening should resume in the short term.

The forecast track remains problematic. As I said yesterday, the ultimate impact on Florida is a function of where and when the turn to the east begins; this remains the case today. Yesterday, we saw Wilma turn from a WNW heading to the current NNW direction, sparing portions of the Yucatan from the onslaught. This turn was in response to a mid-latitude storm system currently moving through the Ohio valley. This was supposed to be the turning mechanism to pick up Wilma and shove her off toward FL, but this system appears to have only been able to slightly turn Wilma. There are some meteorologists that think this Ohio valley system could still turn Wilma toward us sooner; while this is still a possibility, it seems the system will soon be east of Wilma and its effects will lessen through today. How to tell what's happening: If Wilma continues toward the NNW or even North or NE, the Ohio valley system is still having an effect on Wilma, but if she heads back to the WNW, it will have passed it by.

The official forecast calls for Wilma to wander around the Yucatan until Saturday afternoon, and there are some models that forecast her to stay there even longer. The longer she stays there, the more the storm will weaken: better for us, but obviously bad for Mexico. There is a second mid-latitude low pressure system that will eventually turn Wilma to the east (assuming the current one misses it) Saturday.

Since a forecast depends on a series of events, and given the fact we're not entirely certain how long Wilma will visit the Yucatan, the impacts on Florida are, unfortunately, murky. The official forecast calls for the same SW Florida landfall Monday as a strong Cat 2 storm, cutting south of Lake Okeechobee, and exiting around West Palm. The West Palm exit point really hasn't moved too much over the last couple days, which tells me either the Hurricane Center is either really certain about it, or they're not sure at all, but don't want anyone to let their guard down yet. My money is on the second case, given all the uncertainity evident to this point. It might very well exit FL south of that point, but we really won't know until she begins to turn. Once that eastbound turn occurs, confidence in the forecast should increase.

Given the current forecast, we should still expect to see tropical storm force to Cat1/2 winds here on Monday. We still think it will take no more than 6-8 hours to cross FL. If this turns out to be the case, I imagine schools would be closed Monday.

Watch for the turn toward the east; forecast track confidence should increase once that begins. The sooner she arrives here, the stronger she's likely to be.

Wilma Update 20 October

Repost of previously emailed message:

No big surprises with Wilma overnight this time...she has weakened slightly to a Cat 4/150 mph storm. The pressure has risen to 900 mb this morning. She has been moving toward the west-northwest for the last day or so at about 8 mph.

The problem this morning is with the forecast models. Yesterday, one forecast model (one of the better ones, according to the Hurricane Center) "flipped" it's track by 1700 miles (5 day fcst position moved from Maine to Havana). The model has since flipped back, and is generally agreeing with the ultimate path forecast by the other models. However, the models still differ on the speed/timing of when Wilma will cross Florida. Basically, there will be a fair bit of uncertainity until Wilma begins to head northwest, then north, then toward the northeast. Where and when that turn occurs will give us a much better idea of when Wilma will affect us.

The official forecast track still calls for landfall near Naples, then passing south of Lake Okeechobee, and exiting around West Palm; a slight southern shift from yesterday, but probably nothing to bank on 4 or 5 days in advance given the uncertainities we have regarding the turning point mentioned above. The timing has slowed by about a day: the storm is now forecast to be in West Palm at 1 AM Monday morning, and there are some model forecasts that are slower than the official forecast. The new slowness results from Wilma spending more time in Mexico before turning toward the northeast; she is still expected to spend no more than 6-8 hours crossing Florida.

Expected weather in Melbourne is unchanged. It may take a little longer for the core of the bad weather to arrive, but we'll still see tropical storm force winds, with Cat 1 or Cat 2 winds possible when Wilma crosses the state.

Wilma Update 19 October

Repost of emailed message:

Overnight, Wilma developed into a Cat 5 storm with max sustained winds of 175 mph. The aircraft inside the storm made a preliminary central pressure measurement of 884 mb which, if correct, would be the lowest central pressure ever measured in an Atlantic basin hurricane (previous low: Gilbert (1988) 888 mb). The only good news about this is that it can't get much stronger.

The official forecast track is effectively unchanged from yesterday: landfall near Naples, then passing through Lake Okeechobee, and exiting around West Palm, traversing the state in a quick 6-8 hours overnight Saturday/early Sunday. Wilma should begin to turn eastbound overnight Friday/Saturday. Once the turn begins, slight weakening should also begin resulting from increasing shear. The current forecast has Wilma making landfall as a Cat 3 hurricane.

Around Melbourne, the humidity will begin to creep up starting tomorrow (blame Wilma). Rain and wind will be the rule for most of the weekend. Based on the current forecast track, tropical storm force winds, at a minimum, are likely, but Category 1 or possibly 2 winds aren't out of the question. Obviously, the farther south you go, the stronger the winds will be. Check the National Weather Service forecast for more info as we get closer to the weekend.

Cooler and drier air should rush in early next week (blame Wilma), which could be handy should we lose power for a few hours (or longer) on Sunday or Monday.