Wilma Update 20 October

Repost of previously emailed message:

No big surprises with Wilma overnight this time...she has weakened slightly to a Cat 4/150 mph storm. The pressure has risen to 900 mb this morning. She has been moving toward the west-northwest for the last day or so at about 8 mph.

The problem this morning is with the forecast models. Yesterday, one forecast model (one of the better ones, according to the Hurricane Center) "flipped" it's track by 1700 miles (5 day fcst position moved from Maine to Havana). The model has since flipped back, and is generally agreeing with the ultimate path forecast by the other models. However, the models still differ on the speed/timing of when Wilma will cross Florida. Basically, there will be a fair bit of uncertainity until Wilma begins to head northwest, then north, then toward the northeast. Where and when that turn occurs will give us a much better idea of when Wilma will affect us.

The official forecast track still calls for landfall near Naples, then passing south of Lake Okeechobee, and exiting around West Palm; a slight southern shift from yesterday, but probably nothing to bank on 4 or 5 days in advance given the uncertainities we have regarding the turning point mentioned above. The timing has slowed by about a day: the storm is now forecast to be in West Palm at 1 AM Monday morning, and there are some model forecasts that are slower than the official forecast. The new slowness results from Wilma spending more time in Mexico before turning toward the northeast; she is still expected to spend no more than 6-8 hours crossing Florida.

Expected weather in Melbourne is unchanged. It may take a little longer for the core of the bad weather to arrive, but we'll still see tropical storm force winds, with Cat 1 or Cat 2 winds possible when Wilma crosses the state.