Still not sure when she'll get here

First real post in the new blog. We'll try this disemmination method instead of the email route. Theoretically, this method should work much better over the weekend. Comments are welcome.

This morning we find Wilma to be a Cat 4/150 mph hurricane moving to the NNW at 6 MPH. Central pressure has risen to 923 mb. She spent yesterday in an eyewall replacement cycle, which is now complete, so strengthening should resume in the short term.

The forecast track remains problematic. As I said yesterday, the ultimate impact on Florida is a function of where and when the turn to the east begins; this remains the case today. Yesterday, we saw Wilma turn from a WNW heading to the current NNW direction, sparing portions of the Yucatan from the onslaught. This turn was in response to a mid-latitude storm system currently moving through the Ohio valley. This was supposed to be the turning mechanism to pick up Wilma and shove her off toward FL, but this system appears to have only been able to slightly turn Wilma. There are some meteorologists that think this Ohio valley system could still turn Wilma toward us sooner; while this is still a possibility, it seems the system will soon be east of Wilma and its effects will lessen through today. How to tell what's happening: If Wilma continues toward the NNW or even North or NE, the Ohio valley system is still having an effect on Wilma, but if she heads back to the WNW, it will have passed it by.

The official forecast calls for Wilma to wander around the Yucatan until Saturday afternoon, and there are some models that forecast her to stay there even longer. The longer she stays there, the more the storm will weaken: better for us, but obviously bad for Mexico. There is a second mid-latitude low pressure system that will eventually turn Wilma to the east (assuming the current one misses it) Saturday.

Since a forecast depends on a series of events, and given the fact we're not entirely certain how long Wilma will visit the Yucatan, the impacts on Florida are, unfortunately, murky. The official forecast calls for the same SW Florida landfall Monday as a strong Cat 2 storm, cutting south of Lake Okeechobee, and exiting around West Palm. The West Palm exit point really hasn't moved too much over the last couple days, which tells me either the Hurricane Center is either really certain about it, or they're not sure at all, but don't want anyone to let their guard down yet. My money is on the second case, given all the uncertainity evident to this point. It might very well exit FL south of that point, but we really won't know until she begins to turn. Once that eastbound turn occurs, confidence in the forecast should increase.

Given the current forecast, we should still expect to see tropical storm force to Cat1/2 winds here on Monday. We still think it will take no more than 6-8 hours to cross FL. If this turns out to be the case, I imagine schools would be closed Monday.

Watch for the turn toward the east; forecast track confidence should increase once that begins. The sooner she arrives here, the stronger she's likely to be.