Hurricane warnings issued; schools closed tomorrow

Wilma finally emerged off the Mexican coast last night a few hours ahead of the forecast. Some of the outer rainbands are still battering Cozumel and Cancun; some of these locations have had hurricane conditions for the last two days. Pictures from this region over the next couple of days will reveal incredible destruction.

This morning (5 AM) Wilma is a Cat 2/100 MPH hurricane. Central pressure is up to 961 mb. The turn to the northeast has begun: movement is toward the NE at 3 MPH. The time spent in Mexico has disrupted the inner core of Wilma. Satellite loops and the hurricane hunters report the eye is a bit ragged and measures about 70 miles in diameter. Wilma currently has a non-symmetric cloud pattern: much of the convection is displaced off to the northeast of the center, possibly indicative of a tug toward the northeast by the upper-level wind patterns.

Wilma should begin to move faster toward the northeast today. Strengthening today is not a foregone conclusion, though it is possible. The central pressure hasn't changed since Wilma moved off the Yucatan last Saturday evening, indicating she's still getting her bearings. Some have also speculated she is in another eyewall replacement cycle, which would argue against strengthening in the short term until that is complete.

However, short term strengthening is basically all she's got left. After too much more time, she will encounter the increased wind shear of the large upper-level pressure trough which will push her quickly through the state, but not allow any substantial strengthening. There is also dry air to the west of Wilma, which also argues against strengthening. However, she is over warm water, so she could strengthen back to a Cat 3 hurricane today. The official forecast does not anticipate much strengthening, and Cat 2 at landfall in SW Florida is the official forecast.

Like I said yesterday, Wilma emerging from the Yucatan a little early isn't the best news for us, the argument being she'd have more time to drift north before heading east. She didn't miss the forecast by too much (a couple hours) so it's probably not too bad for us. The model guidance has shifted south from yesterday a little bit, and the official forecast has also drifted south. The forecast track is now south of Lake Okeechobee, and the east coast exit point is also a little south of the previous position.

The mutant circle map indicates we can expect Tropical Storm force winds beginning tomorrow morning. The 50 knot (58 mph) circle is also lurking about our area, and the forecast calls for hurricane force winds in southern Brevard county. Obviously a small northward track deviation could make things a bit more "exciting" for us. Expectation is that by late tomorrow afternoon, the winds will have subsided.

As of 5 AM, we are under a Hurricane Warning. Brevard County schools have already been closed for Monday, and some of the shelters will open today at 10 AM for the mandatory evacuation of mobile home and manufactured housing residents. Evacuation of the barrier islands does not appear imminent, however the causeways might be closed for a few hours tomorrow (honestly, who wants to be on top of a causeway in 60+ mph winds?).