Beautiful morning, and the next one

Blue sky, sun is up, not overly hot or humid (though with the dewpoint at 75 F I must be adapting) and a light breeze. Roads are bone dry (at least here) and the local canals are back to normal height (though the big ones remain swollen). If there was a golf course around that wasn't flooded it would be a great morning to get out and play...

I'd prefer not to talk about Fay anymore, so all I'll mention is that the southeastern most scattered bands of rain are near Ocala. I hear Georgia wants the rain...they can have it.

The "next one" is an area of concern centered near 10 N and 55 W. Now, before you go and get your tarps out, the next one is merely the next one to watch, not necessarily the next one coming here. I mentioned this area yesterday, and then noted the computer model trend was to recurve it out in the Bahamas. Since then, the center has relocated a fair bit to the south and east and those models that picked up on the shift have now modified their track to be more of a Jamaica, Yucatan, and Gulf of Mexico threat. A model or two still do call for recurvature, so this remains one to watch. It will take another day (at least) for the models to reasonably focus on a solution.

There appear to be no obvious reasons for the system to decay: the shear is low and expected to remain so, the water is warm, and the dry air is slowly eroding.