Who said weakening?

I told you we're not very good at this intensity thing, didn't I?

During the day, Fay intensified--yes, over land--rather than weakened. The central pressure fell by a couple of millibars and the maximum winds increased from 60 to 65 MPH. Not a huge change, however, the increased organization has prompted changes to the forecast track and (if you're still willing to believe it) intensity forecast. The reasons for strengthening over land rather than the expected weakening aren't immediately clear. Certainly the terrain of Florida is nothing like that over Hispaniola, so we weren't expecting the system to be shredded to bits. I would dispute the effects of Lake Okeechobee or the Everglades as a nice warm water source, as I don't think the circulation center ever went over those areas. It's possible the added friction over Florida helped to consolidate the ragged center into one coherent center. Additionally, throughout its history, Fay has been able to maintain a rather robust mid-level circulation (it's looked much more impressive on satellite than it really was).

As I type, the worst of the storm so far has just moved through this area. Numerous rotating cells were seen on the Melbourne radar, prompting tornado warnings for our area. Additional intense cells are will be moving into the region through the night. It might be a good idea to turn on the weather radio tonight.

Fay is moving toward the north-northeast at 8 MPH. The track has become more, ahem, interesting. The new track has Fay crossing the east coast at Melbourne as a tropical storm overnight tonight. It will then swing out into the Atlantic around Daytona making landfall near Jacksonville Thursday afternoon. Most of the strength with Fay to this point has been on the east side of the storm, meaning there is a greater threat for severe weather in the southern part of Brevard compared to the northern sections on this forecast track. If you're willing to try another intensity forecast, while over the ocean, Fay is expected to strengthen to a Cat 1 hurricane.

Radar estimated precip totals are around 4 inches in this area, with more to come. My raingauge naturally failed to work today, but my pool needs to be pumped down a bit, so 4 inches seems about right.