It's headed right for us, mon!

Major hurricane Dean continued to roar across the Caribbean this morning. Maximum sustained winds are currently 150 MPH, which is a category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The threshold for a cat 5 storm is 155 MPH, and given the warm ocean waters and minimal shear ahead of Dean, it seems likely to become a cat 5 storm.

Dean has slowed slightly, now moving toward the west at 17 MPH. The short-term forecast remains unchanged; a direct hit on Jamaica seems inevitable. In addition to the usual effects from a cat 4 or 5 hurricane (wind, rain) mudslides induced by the mountainous terrain will add to the misery there.

Beyond Jamaica, the forecast is less clear. The forecast models continue to hint at landfall anywhere from the Yucatan to Houston. The models all differ in the way they model the movement of the upper-level areas of low pressure (currently over south Florida) and high pressure directly north of Dean. Another environmental sampling mission will provide new data for input into the forecast models tonight. This mission should help characterize these atmospheric features governing the movement of Dean. Still, there are no model solutions indicating a threat to Florida.