Texas probably safe, Jamaica not so much

Hurricane Dean remained a cat 4 storm with 145 MPH winds yesterday. This is a slight amount of weakening, but obviously still not a sunset walk on the beach. The news here is that it isn't a cat 5 yet, though that's probably in the cards for tomorrow, as the heat content of the northwestern Caribbean is immense. Dean is moving toward the west-northwest at 18 MPH; this motion is expected to continue basically for the next 3 days. Central pressure is 921 mb.

The forecast track has shifted slightly to the south today. Dean will remain a cat 4 storm as it rumbles through or just to the south of Jamaica during the day today. This is likely to be the worst storm to hit that island in many years. The Cayman Islands are next, but again, with the slight southward track adjustment, these islands might be spared the full brunt as Dean passes by during the early morning hours tomorrow.

Further out, the forecast model tracks have oozed slightly to the south, now cutting across the Yucatan and into Mexico. The threat to Texas is reduced, though I'm not yet convinced those residents need to completely drop their guard, especially along the southern coast.