Both of our areas of concern have strengthened since yesterday. First is the newly formed TD5 in the Gulf of Mexico. It's having some organizational issues at this moment, which will probably preclude any significant strengthening despite a decrease in the vertical shear in the vicinity. Landfall is expected as a tropical storm in the next two to three days along the Mexico/Texas border.

Tropical storm Dean was upgraded yesterday. Upon its upgrade, it promptly began to weaken for the next 6-9 hours. A strong convective burst overnight can be seen in the satellite imagery, so one would expect the weakening trend has ended. Currently a 50 MPH tropical storm, strengthening should continue as the easterly shear is decreasing, and the storm is moving toward increasingly warmer water temperatures. A slow, steady increase in strength is expected over the next two to three days. Dean is moving primarily toward the west at 18 MPH.

To the extent one can believe 6-9 day hurricane track forecasts, the forecast track has clarified somewhat. The modeling is by no means complete, as some of the models are still shaking out some of their problems locating the storm center correctly. However, most of the recent modeling takes Dean into the Caribbean; that is, south of the Greater Antilles, instead of north of these islands. The idea of a landfall along the east coast of the US has, for now, been discarded. A dome of high pressure is expected to be along the north edge of Dean for the next 3-5 days, which will induce a general west to west-northwestward motion. This dome of high pressure should "protect" the Florida Peninsula from a direct hit. Current thinking which, of course, could change, has Dean exiting the Caribbean in the general vicinity of the Yucatan Channel (between Mexico and Cuba), with an ultimate landfall along the western Gulf coast to, perhaps, as far east as the Florida panhandle.

The intensity forecast remains a little easier than the track forecast. The shear is weakening, and the environment is favorable, so Dean should be a hurricane in the next two days prior to landfall in the Lesser Antilles. Once entering the Caribbean, Dean has everything going for it, such that it should become a major hurricane.

Hurricane climatologies (i.e., past storms) indicate that storms that form in the general vicinity of where Dean formed and then pass 60 west longitude south of 20 north latitude generally make landfall in the US or Mexico, and generally became major hurricanes at some point. Since it seems likely Dean will cross 60 west at or near 15 north, these climatologies indicate an interesting week ahead.