Underwear Day II

Well, not quite, but not far from it either. With many things closed, and a not so stressful tropical system on the way, today kinda has that snow day feel.

Fay made keyfall at Key West yesterday afternoon, and then arrived ashore near Cape Romano (near Naples) early this morning. Fay never achieved hurricane strength, and maximum winds so far were estimated to be 60 MPH, which also remains the current (8 AM ET) estimated maximum wind speed. Fay was able to organize and strengthen during the day yesterday despite wind shear and dry air, and a circulation center is clearly visible on the Miami radar loop, and is now visible on the Melbourne radar. However, slow weakening over land is expected over the next few days. Fay is moving toward the north-northeast at 9 MPH, and this motion will slow and turn toward the north (left) during the day today. Central pressure is currently 988 mb.

The forecast has been a rather difficult one, prompting more than a few "do you guys know what you're doing?" comments over the last couple days. The forecast calls for Fay to maintain its current heading, which will move the center between Orlando and Melbourne around 2 AM Wednesday. It is forecast to move offshore between Cape Canaveral and Daytona, spend about 24 hours offshore before looping back west and making a third landfall (a statistic not lost on insurance executives) near Jacksonville. This westward loop is caused by high pressure building in from the northeast US; the strength of this high is the forecast question of the day. A weaker high pressure area allows Fay to move farther north away from us. Currently little increase in strength over the Atlantic is expected.

Since we will find ourselves on the eastern half of a landfalling tropical storm, the primary local impacts will be wind, rain, and tornadoes. So far most of the heavy rainbands have remained offshore, but as the center approaches this threat will increase.