Models turn right

This morning, Hurricane Dean is a 100 MPH, category two storm, racing to the west at 24 MPH. Dean is currently located in the channel between St. Lucia and Martinique. The storm is fairly impressive looking on satellite, however, the radar presentation from Martinique radar indicates less organization than one might expect.

As mentioned yesterday, the environmental sampling mission was flown to measure atmospheric conditions around Dean and input these data into last night's forecast model cycle. The models have responded to these new observations by generally making a slight turn to the right in the 3-5 day forecast range. The models in this case are weakening the western edge of the high pressure ridge north of Dean. These forecast tracks indicate an increased risk to the western Gulf coast, e.g., Texas and western Louisiana. Some models still indicate the southern route into Mexico is preferred. Nothing is certain yet, but now we simply have a slightly larger error cone than we previously did. We still don't have a model run indicating a risk to Florida.

Not much change to our expectations of the peak intensity: we still cannot find a good reason why Dean should not become this seasons first major hurricane, and category 4 strength (131 MPH) is not out of the question.