Ill-defined Fay slows; forecast remains uncertain

The problems forecasting a poorly defined tropical storm in weak steering currents are on full display with Fay this morning. During the day yesterday, Fay slowed her forward speed and began the turn to the north. Currently located inland over central Cuba, Fay is moving toward the north-northwest at 12 MPH and has maximum sustained winds of 50 MPH. The surface center is not located under all of the convection seen on satellite, nor is it located under the swirl apparent on the radar from Key West. The system is tilted: the upper level circulations are found north and east of the surface circulation. Tropical systems usually aren't tilted, so it would seem it might need to get the core stacked back together before any explosive development occurs.

The north-northwest motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours with a gradual turn toward the north expected Tuesday. Fay has reached the western extent of the high pressure ridge that has been located to it's north for the last few days. Keep in mind that these types of weak systems don't make a nice smooth turn as you watch short-term radar and satellite loops, but will instead jog a little bit one way, then back another. The long-term motion appears much smoother than it does in the short term.

The forecast remains in agreement for the first, oh, 48 hours or so, taking Fay inland somewhere between Tampa and Ft Myers and bending a little toward the north east after that. Landfall is expected during the afternoon Tuesday, which is a little slower than previously expected. The official forecast is to the right (east) of the model consensus during this period.

Beyond that, the models at times have unfortunately provided more entertainment value than forecast value. This is because they are hinting that another ridge developing northeast of Florida later in the week, effectively blocking Fay's path to the north. We've even got one model solution that predicts three landfalls in Florida during the week: one on the southwest coast emerging into the Atlantic, Fay then turns west and makes a second landfall along the east central coast, proceeds across the state and makes a final landfall on the Panhandle. Point here is that the long term forecast continues to have more uncertainty than usual, and there is an outside chance we'll be watching Fay for another week.

The intensity forecast is likewise uncertain, though we do understand a few things here. The system is currently over land and is poorly defined, so not much will happen there. Fay will probably become a Cat 1 hurricane prior to landfall as it moves north over warm water, but probably not much stronger than that.

The Hurricane Center is making more noise than usual about its "don't follow the thin black line, look at the wind swath" mantra, which, of course, is correct. We've seen over the last few days that small changes in the forecast models are reflected in somewhat big changes in the track (the thin black line), but really don't change the windspeed forecasts very much. At the end of the day, we're worried about wind and storm damage, not if the storm center passes over us. For now, we have about a 50% chance of tropical storm force winds, 10-20% chance of 58 MPH winds, and less than 10% change of hurricane force winds.

At 5 AM this morning, a TS watch was issued for the east coast from Jupiter to Sebastian. I suspect that will also be issued for Brevard later today. A TS warning is in effect for Jupiter south to the Keys this morning. At this point it's unclear when additional warnings will be issued for our area.