Clearing out the cobwebs

Wow...50 weeks since the last time I made a post. One side effect of a quiet tropical season is that I have to clear all of the cobwebs off of the blog that have accumulated over the past year. Not that I'm complaining though...more cobwebs means less tropical activity to be concerned with.

There are two areas of concern this morning. The first is in the Gulf of Mexico, where a area of low pressure is gaining organization just north of the Yucatan. This region isn't a depression or a named storm yet, but could be in the next day or so. The Hurricane Hunters will be flying into this disturbance later today. All modeling indicates this will head west toward Mexico or southern Texas, and shouldn't impact Florida.

The second area of concern is Tropical Depression 4 out in the open Atlantic. TD4 is currently located about 1660 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, is moving smartly toward the west at 21 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. It could be upgraded to a tropical storm later today. Now, we generally don't concern ourselves with tropical depressions 1700 miles east of the islands. However, this one is fairly interesting, as it's one of the few cases where we're more certain of the intensity forecast than the track forecast.

The intensity forecast calls for small strengthening over the next 2-3 days. Currently easterly shear is blowing the developing thunderstorms off to the western side of the circulation center. This shear is forecast to relax , and TD4 is expected to hit warmer ocean waters, so the forecast calls for TD4 to be a minimal hurricane (75 mph) at 72 hours (early Friday morning). Further strengthening is forecast after three days, but since the intensity forecast is obviously coupled with the track forecast, and since there are considerable uncertainties in the forecast track, it's probably best not to worry about that just yet.

The forecast track is more uncertain than usual. Currently, some computer models take TD4 into the Caribbean, while other models take the storm north of Puerto Rico. US landfall points range from Texas to New England if the modeling is to be believed. The differences will hopefully shake themselves out of the modeling system over the next couple of days. Many of the models have not started with the correct initial conditions of TD4, and if the model doesn't have that correct, it's difficult to produce a good forecast. The official forecast takes TD4 just to the north and east of Puerto Rico in 5 days (Sunday), which follows the large majority of the computer guidance.

So, what does it all mean? Now is the time to begin to check that hurricane supply list to see what you've got and figure out what you need. Certainly this isn't a time to panic; if TD4 is heading this way, it probably won't be here for another 8-10 days, so you've got time.