Shields up?

Ernesto finally emerged from the Cuban landmass this morning, after spending not quite 24 hours over land. The combination of land and an upper-level low spinning to the northwest of Ernesto has weakened the storm to a 45 MPH tropical storm this morning. He has moved a little further west than anticipated by nearly a full degree of longitude (about 60 miles), which has implications for the track and strength forecasts. He is moving to the northwest at 14 MPH; central pressure is 1005 mb.

The movement to the west means both good and bad news for us. First the bad; it has shifted the forecast track back to our west. Ernesto is now expected to make landfall in the upper Keys early Wednesday morning and exit the peninsula somewhere between Melbourne and Daytona early Thursday morning. The models are again in excellent agreement on this scenario. Nearly none of the models take the storm to our east, in fact, more of the model tracks are west of the official forecast than east of the forecast. This will put Melbourne on the eastern (stronger) side of the circulation, so the tornadic threat will be high Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

The good news (yes, there can be good news in all of this): The circulation, as previously mentioned, spent more time over Cuba, and as a result is a little weaker and less organized. Additionally, as one progresses west along the northern Cuban coast, the distance to Florida decreases. Implication here is that the storm will (hopefully) spend less time over the high octane water in the Florida Straits. Ernesto has about 18-24 hours prior to landfall in the Keys, and is not expected to become a hurricane prior to landfall. This means a weaker storm for us, which is always good.

Weather conditions will begin to deteriorate today. We are under a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch at of 5 AM this morning. On the current forecast track, we will have tropical storm force winds, with gusts to hurricane strength. Rainfall amounts are estimated to be in the 5-10 inch range before all is said and done; pumping down the pool a little bit might not be a bad idea today. Storm surge is not expected to be a big problem in this part of the state.

So, do you board up the abode today? I suppose it depends on your personal situation. For example, I probably would not wait in line at Home Depot for plywood for this one. If you don't have shutters, today is not the day to get them. Maybe this weekend, but not today.

If you've got shutters already made and ready to go, them you might want to consider putting them up, especially if you have certain parts of your home (e.g., big doors) that are a little more vulnerable to an east wind. The hodo-hut has a couple of those, so those will certainly go up today.

It's not clear to me what will be open tomorrow (schools, businesses, etc.). The usual threshold is whether or not the causeways can stay open, which (I think) the wind threshold is 40 MPH. Assuming that is the threshold, it seems to me we should exceed that, so I'd be surprised if those things remained open tomorrow. A decision on that should come later today.