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Tropical Storm Ernesto formed yesterday in the eastern Caribbean. Currently, Ernesto is a 45 MPH tropical storm, moving toward the WNW at 16 MPH. Ernesto has battled against upper-level shearing winds most of the last two days. There was even a period of time yesterday when I wondered if the storm would survive, but survive it has. The storm looks much more impressive on satellite this morning compared to yesterday morning. The shear is expected to weaken as we move forward from here which, unfortunately, means Ernesto should survive and, based on it's location, will have to hit land somewhere.

That "somewhere" is where all the fun begins. The storm track for the next three days is fairly straight forward: high pressure is found north of Ernesto, such that he should move on a NW heading and skirt Jamaica and western Cuba. After that, it will enter the Gulf of Mexico, and that's when the thinking diverges somewhat. Some of the global weather models develop a weakness in that high pressure ridge and consequently turn Ernesto north, resulting in a landfall location along the central/eastern Gulf coast. Other models do not develop this weakness, moving the landfall location toward the western Gulf coast. I think right now, we're looking at a Houston to Mobile landfall around next Friday or Saturday. Notice that timeframe is a week away, meaning there's an awful lot that can happen prior to landfall. Peninsular Florida (where I live) would appear to be safe from this one, but the Panhandle is not as safe.

Additionally (if somehow you haven't heard yet) Tuesday is the one year anniversary of Katrina's landfall in New Orleans. There is a decent chance Ernesto might be there next week.

The intensity forecast, usually the hard part, is relatively straightforward in this case. Ernesto is still battling shear and although the shear is decreasing, the sea surface temps (SST's) are not super warm in the central and eastern Caribbean. As such, gradual strengthening is expected over the next three days. The really warm SST's (over a deep layer of the ocean) are found from Jamaica into the Gulf. These SST's are still not as warm as last year, however, they are warm enough to develop the storm into a hurricane, and possibly a major hurricane as some models are forecasting.

With the possibility of another major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week, it seems reasonable and prudent to procure some gasoline today and tomorrow before things get, well, interesting.