The plane found 60 MPH!

Well, I did say we're not very good at this intensity forecast thing, didn't I?



Chris obviously got it's act together today. At 8 PM, Chris was packing maximum sustained winds of 60 MPH. The storm is moving toward the NW at 13 MPH. Chris is a small storm; tropical storm force winds only extend 25 miles from the center. Storm outflow (important for maintaining and increasing strength) is good from between north to southwest of the center (or, for those of you still with a clock face on your wrist, from noon to 7 o'clock). Dry air, and some shear are still present to the northwest of the storm.

Decreasing shear is most likely responsible for the intensity increase today. Some further intensification is possible. However, as I posted this morning, the oceanic heat content is not very great in this part of the Atlantic and is certainly not sufficient to support a major hurricane east of Florida. If Chris makes it into the Gulf of Mexico, then the heat content there, while still lower than last year, is sufficient to support a potentially dangerous system.

So, where is Chris going? Our global model friends have not yet settled on a reasonable solution (or even a series of possible soutions that can be debated). Many of them still disipate Chris after 72 hours. The Bermuda high is forecast to build in from the north and east, deflecting Chris left of its current heading after about 3 days. The current NHC forecast track reflects this, and seems reasonable, passing Chris closer to Cuba than Key West. It is possible Chris could interact with the rugged land mass of Hispanola, which would disrupt the circulation and possible throw all the previous forecasts into doubt.