Irene: Not bad here, can't say the same for up north

Hurricane Irene continues to move as forecast earlier this week. Overnight tonight she is expected to be a major hurricane centered 150-200 miles east of Melbourne. There are no tropical watches or warnings in effect for any portion of Florida as I type, and none appear to be in the offing. I have heard no mention of the schools of causeways closing as of yet. Primary impacts here will be lots of wind and clouds, with some squally rain. Folks should heed the rip current warnings and stay out of the ocean (it's OK to look, just don't touch). Unpleasant weather? Sure. Catastrophic or worthy of canceling indoor events? Not so much.

Turning our attention to the north, there are no credible model forecasts that have Irene missing the US. Landfall is currently forecast for just south of the Outer Banks, NC on Saturday during daylight hours (great for the cable news talking heads and budding Cantore wannabees). Irene is further forecast to proceed along the coast and affect the major I-95 cities of the northeast. Storm surge along the Maryland, NJ, and NY City coastlines (potentially 15 feet) is likely to cause significant flooding.

For my northern readers (OK, mostly family; this blog isn't that popular outside of Melbourne) preparations should be completed tomorrow. You should be prepared for a power outage that may last up to 3 days, which means no cooking, no gas stations, no credit cards, no ATM's; in other words, you'll be camping for 3 days. This link contains some useful information and a shopping list. Yes, the tone of the link is, well, southern, and there is a bit of unneeded discussion about boarding up the house (too late for that, probly not required), but the general preparedness theme should be heeded before it's too late.

Irene blows off the cobwebs

Well, it has been quite some time since I've made a posting here; IMO a good thing as that means we haven't been threatened very much in three years. As I blow the cobwebs off the blog, please understand all the links to the right will be slowly updated (webmasters like to move links around every now and then).

Irene seemingly posed much more of a threat to us yesterday than it does today. Extra weather observations over the Atlantic and the US were loaded into the suite of weather forecast models last night, and the resulting forecasts all take Irene east of Florida. The Bahamas will take a direct hit for sure, but it seems Florida will be spared. Where (if?) Irene makes landfall along the east coast is still to be determined; when hurricanes parallel the east coast, little wiggles in the track can make a huge difference in the impact felt, making the forecast a bit more interesting.

The intensity forecast is fairly straight forward. The ocean is warm and the wind shear is low, so it is hard to envision a scenario where Irene does not become a major (category 3) storm. Most forecasts make her a Cat 4, but she might make it to a 5 before all is said and done.

Impacts to us here in Florida aren't too bad, once you become comfortable with a Cat4/5 major hurricane 100-150 miles to your east. Conditions will begin to deteriorate here on Thursday afternoon and Friday; mostly clouds, occasional showers, and winds possible to tropical storm force (esp. beach side). Once Irene moves away from us, conditions should begin to improve starting late Friday.

Still west

Hurricane Ike is set to visit Cuba as a cat 4 storm (135 MPH, 948 mb) during the next two days. You can easily imagine the damage that will occur along a large majority of the island. Evacuations in the Keys are continuing today.

Beyond that, computer models continue to shift toward the west. It now seems as if Texas is just as likely (if not more so) for landfall than Florida is, which is a rather remarkable change of events from the expected Miami landfall 24-36 hours ago.

Some restrengthening is expected once Ike emerges from Cuba, but there's a chance Ike won't strengthen rapidly due to dry air and unfavorable upper-level winds in the Gulf of Mexico in about 5 days. But that's 5 days away---lots can change.

Today there doesn't appear to be a threat to our area from Ike. However, hurricanes can continue to surprise us, and I'll feel better when Ike has reached a position north of us (about 28.50 degrees north). Hotel reservations will be canceled later this morning.

The last hurricane center advisory on Hanna, now located near Boston, was issued this morning. Hanna dropped a swath of 2-6 inches of rain over most of the mid-Atlantic, northeast, and New England yesterday. Put another way, one or two months worth of rain for that part of the country fell in about 6 hours.

Heading west

Hanna made landfall around 3:30 this morning as a strong tropical storm along the NC/SC border. Some residents of Myrtle Beach are without power, but otherwise things appear to be going as well as could be expected. Hanna is expected to quickly move north and affect most residents of the east coast in some manner over the next few days.

Ike is a cat 3 hurricane (115 MPH, 962 mb) moving quickly toward the west southwest at 16 MPH. As you've no doubt seen, the forecast track has significantly shifted toward the south and west during the last 24 hours. The model spaghetti map (right hand menu bar) shows most of the guidance expects Ike to completely miss Florida. Tourist evacuations for the Keys begin today, and resident evacs tomorrow. Assuming no land interactions with Cuba, Ike is expected to be a major hurricane as it passes through the Florida Straits.

While we're not canceling hotel reservations yet, we are breathing easier this morning compared to yesterday. We're certainly not planning to move the shutters out of the garage either.

Georgia on my mind

But first...Hanna. Currently she's about 100 miles east of us, bringing some rain and wind to our area. She is moving toward the northwest at 18 MPH and she is expected to increase her forward speed during the day. Implication here is that conditions should improve as the day goes on. I received an inch of rain overnight, and looking at the drainage around the neighborhood this morning it's clear the soil remains rather saturated--there is much more pooling of water from an inch of rain than I normally see.

Ike is behaving according to plan. Shear from the north has weakened Ike down to a Cat 3 storm with estimated maximum sustained winds of 125 MPH. Central pressure is estimated to be 945 mb; a plane will be sampling Ike later this afternoon to provide more accurate values for these parameters. The eye is near the northern edge of the convection, reflecting the effect of the upper-level shear.

Ike is supposed to begin it's turn toward the south and west today and, in fact, appears to have already begun this turn. The amount of wavyness (or, if you'd rather, the amplitude of the sine wave-like track) in the official forecast track has decreased today compared to yesterday. Additionally, the forecast models are trending south and west with their tracks. The official 5 day forecast point is now south of Miami, which reflects the forecast model trends to build in the surface ridge over the Atlantic stronger than previously anticipated. This morning, the majority of model tracks are south of this area and many of them miss the peninsula to the south (the Keys are another story). One fairly reliable model has been forecasting landfall along the northern Gulf Coast for the last few model cycles. For now, the feeling is it may pass to our south and west, but we really won't have a good idea until Sunday morning.

The shear should relax in about 24 hours. Thereafter, it is difficult to find an argument against intensification, and Ike is expected to be a major hurricane in 5 days.

This is the time to begin to review your personal plans, just in case you need to take action. We have secured hotel reservations in Savannah for the middle of next week. Keep in mind this does not mean we're planning to beat feet out of here, just that I've got a place in case I need to. Hotel reservations can always be canceled. The shutters remain in the garage for now. Decisions should be clearer on Sunday morning.

I don't like Ike

Hanna no longer appears to be a threat to our area. The turn to the north has finally begun (moving NW at 12 MPH) and she is sufficiently far away from our coast that she shouldn't pose a wind or rain threat. Rip currents might be a concern--in fact it would be best to simply look at the ocean instead of venturing into it for the next few days.

My focus turns now to Ike, a Cat 4 storm (145 MPH) churning in the open Atlantic and moving west at 17 MPH. Central pressure is 935 mb on satellite this morning Ike looks like a classic hurricane. The uncomplicated part of the forecast is in the next 2 days: Ike is forecast to move in a west or just south of west direction to a position near the southern Bahamas by Sunday morning. Some increase in strength is possible over the next day before Ike enters a shearing environment during the afternoon tomorrow, which would induce some weakening, yet still maintain Ike as a major hurricane.

Once near the Bahamas (on Sunday) forward speed slows and a turn toward the northwest begins. The exact location where this turn begins is impossible to predict this far in advance, though it obviously has severe ramifications for coastal impacts. Many of the models are hinting at a recurvature just off to our east in about 6-7 days, but we need to get a little closer to the event to be certain of that. Even if recurvature occurs, Ike should still be a major hurricane in 6-7 days.

A turn northward?

Possibly. And the forecast is a little more promising for EC Florida if the turn north had indeed begun.

The northerly shear (i.e., from north to south) beat the stuffing out of Hanna yesterday. At 5 AM this morning winds were at 50 MPH and the central pressure is 993 mb. Hanna is much closer to Hispaniola than the official forecasts ever contemplated. Just like Fay and Gus, a visit to Hispaniola appears to be required for tropical cyclones this summer.

We've had the airplanes flying in and around Hanna yesterday and today. The "easy" flight: a data gathering mission in a Gulfstream jet flying around, but nowhere near, the storm flew last night and logged extra data that was loaded into last night's forecast models. The "hard" flights (into the center of the storm) have also been flying to report the location of the center (good thing--figuring that out from a satellite loop isn't easy this morning). The "hard" flights report this morning that Hanna has begun to slowly move to the north. The 5 AM report was the first report of this motion, so I'm not entirely convinced it has started yet. Hopefully the motion is to the north and it is maintained for the next few days.

The "easy" misison data shifted the forecast tracks a little father off the EC Florida coast overnight. This is due in part to the storm motion toward the east over the last 12-ish hours. If Hanna maintains a motion to the north, then the forecast modeling should be a bit more accurate than it has been over the last few days (trying to solve an admittedly difficult modeling problem). The forecast still calls for landfall in South Carolina as a Cat 1 hurricane in 2-3 days.

Local impacts obviously will change with the forecast, since small wiggles in track can cause big problems in this case. The Navy Tracking Map (link in the right hand side menu bar) shows the expected wind speeds using the mutant circles. The outermost circle is the radius of 35 knot winds (about 40 mph). Subsequent circles are at 50 kts (about 58 mph) and 65 kts (75 mph). The current forecast has the 35 knot circle glancing the coast early Friday morning, so we'll get some wind and some rain. Since Hanna should be a fast mover, Fay-like rainfall amounts are not expected. It's still too early to figure if things will be closed on Thursday and/or Friday just yet.

Ike continues moving toward the west at 18 mph. He is expected to become a hurricane soon and the forecast has him as a strong Cat 2 storm in 5 days. Most of the models bend Ike to our south, save for two models that have Ike either farther north or recurving just off of our coastline (in 8 days). Too early to tell yet whether or not Ike will pose a problem for us yet.