Irene: Not bad here, can't say the same for up north

Hurricane Irene continues to move as forecast earlier this week. Overnight tonight she is expected to be a major hurricane centered 150-200 miles east of Melbourne. There are no tropical watches or warnings in effect for any portion of Florida as I type, and none appear to be in the offing. I have heard no mention of the schools of causeways closing as of yet. Primary impacts here will be lots of wind and clouds, with some squally rain. Folks should heed the rip current warnings and stay out of the ocean (it's OK to look, just don't touch). Unpleasant weather? Sure. Catastrophic or worthy of canceling indoor events? Not so much.

Turning our attention to the north, there are no credible model forecasts that have Irene missing the US. Landfall is currently forecast for just south of the Outer Banks, NC on Saturday during daylight hours (great for the cable news talking heads and budding Cantore wannabees). Irene is further forecast to proceed along the coast and affect the major I-95 cities of the northeast. Storm surge along the Maryland, NJ, and NY City coastlines (potentially 15 feet) is likely to cause significant flooding.

For my northern readers (OK, mostly family; this blog isn't that popular outside of Melbourne) preparations should be completed tomorrow. You should be prepared for a power outage that may last up to 3 days, which means no cooking, no gas stations, no credit cards, no ATM's; in other words, you'll be camping for 3 days. This link contains some useful information and a shopping list. Yes, the tone of the link is, well, southern, and there is a bit of unneeded discussion about boarding up the house (too late for that, probly not required), but the general preparedness theme should be heeded before it's too late.

Irene blows off the cobwebs

Well, it has been quite some time since I've made a posting here; IMO a good thing as that means we haven't been threatened very much in three years. As I blow the cobwebs off the blog, please understand all the links to the right will be slowly updated (webmasters like to move links around every now and then).

Irene seemingly posed much more of a threat to us yesterday than it does today. Extra weather observations over the Atlantic and the US were loaded into the suite of weather forecast models last night, and the resulting forecasts all take Irene east of Florida. The Bahamas will take a direct hit for sure, but it seems Florida will be spared. Where (if?) Irene makes landfall along the east coast is still to be determined; when hurricanes parallel the east coast, little wiggles in the track can make a huge difference in the impact felt, making the forecast a bit more interesting.

The intensity forecast is fairly straight forward. The ocean is warm and the wind shear is low, so it is hard to envision a scenario where Irene does not become a major (category 3) storm. Most forecasts make her a Cat 4, but she might make it to a 5 before all is said and done.

Impacts to us here in Florida aren't too bad, once you become comfortable with a Cat4/5 major hurricane 100-150 miles to your east. Conditions will begin to deteriorate here on Thursday afternoon and Friday; mostly clouds, occasional showers, and winds possible to tropical storm force (esp. beach side). Once Irene moves away from us, conditions should begin to improve starting late Friday.