Still west

Hurricane Ike is set to visit Cuba as a cat 4 storm (135 MPH, 948 mb) during the next two days. You can easily imagine the damage that will occur along a large majority of the island. Evacuations in the Keys are continuing today.

Beyond that, computer models continue to shift toward the west. It now seems as if Texas is just as likely (if not more so) for landfall than Florida is, which is a rather remarkable change of events from the expected Miami landfall 24-36 hours ago.

Some restrengthening is expected once Ike emerges from Cuba, but there's a chance Ike won't strengthen rapidly due to dry air and unfavorable upper-level winds in the Gulf of Mexico in about 5 days. But that's 5 days away---lots can change.

Today there doesn't appear to be a threat to our area from Ike. However, hurricanes can continue to surprise us, and I'll feel better when Ike has reached a position north of us (about 28.50 degrees north). Hotel reservations will be canceled later this morning.

The last hurricane center advisory on Hanna, now located near Boston, was issued this morning. Hanna dropped a swath of 2-6 inches of rain over most of the mid-Atlantic, northeast, and New England yesterday. Put another way, one or two months worth of rain for that part of the country fell in about 6 hours.

Heading west

Hanna made landfall around 3:30 this morning as a strong tropical storm along the NC/SC border. Some residents of Myrtle Beach are without power, but otherwise things appear to be going as well as could be expected. Hanna is expected to quickly move north and affect most residents of the east coast in some manner over the next few days.

Ike is a cat 3 hurricane (115 MPH, 962 mb) moving quickly toward the west southwest at 16 MPH. As you've no doubt seen, the forecast track has significantly shifted toward the south and west during the last 24 hours. The model spaghetti map (right hand menu bar) shows most of the guidance expects Ike to completely miss Florida. Tourist evacuations for the Keys begin today, and resident evacs tomorrow. Assuming no land interactions with Cuba, Ike is expected to be a major hurricane as it passes through the Florida Straits.

While we're not canceling hotel reservations yet, we are breathing easier this morning compared to yesterday. We're certainly not planning to move the shutters out of the garage either.

Georgia on my mind

But first...Hanna. Currently she's about 100 miles east of us, bringing some rain and wind to our area. She is moving toward the northwest at 18 MPH and she is expected to increase her forward speed during the day. Implication here is that conditions should improve as the day goes on. I received an inch of rain overnight, and looking at the drainage around the neighborhood this morning it's clear the soil remains rather saturated--there is much more pooling of water from an inch of rain than I normally see.

Ike is behaving according to plan. Shear from the north has weakened Ike down to a Cat 3 storm with estimated maximum sustained winds of 125 MPH. Central pressure is estimated to be 945 mb; a plane will be sampling Ike later this afternoon to provide more accurate values for these parameters. The eye is near the northern edge of the convection, reflecting the effect of the upper-level shear.

Ike is supposed to begin it's turn toward the south and west today and, in fact, appears to have already begun this turn. The amount of wavyness (or, if you'd rather, the amplitude of the sine wave-like track) in the official forecast track has decreased today compared to yesterday. Additionally, the forecast models are trending south and west with their tracks. The official 5 day forecast point is now south of Miami, which reflects the forecast model trends to build in the surface ridge over the Atlantic stronger than previously anticipated. This morning, the majority of model tracks are south of this area and many of them miss the peninsula to the south (the Keys are another story). One fairly reliable model has been forecasting landfall along the northern Gulf Coast for the last few model cycles. For now, the feeling is it may pass to our south and west, but we really won't have a good idea until Sunday morning.

The shear should relax in about 24 hours. Thereafter, it is difficult to find an argument against intensification, and Ike is expected to be a major hurricane in 5 days.

This is the time to begin to review your personal plans, just in case you need to take action. We have secured hotel reservations in Savannah for the middle of next week. Keep in mind this does not mean we're planning to beat feet out of here, just that I've got a place in case I need to. Hotel reservations can always be canceled. The shutters remain in the garage for now. Decisions should be clearer on Sunday morning.

I don't like Ike

Hanna no longer appears to be a threat to our area. The turn to the north has finally begun (moving NW at 12 MPH) and she is sufficiently far away from our coast that she shouldn't pose a wind or rain threat. Rip currents might be a concern--in fact it would be best to simply look at the ocean instead of venturing into it for the next few days.

My focus turns now to Ike, a Cat 4 storm (145 MPH) churning in the open Atlantic and moving west at 17 MPH. Central pressure is 935 mb on satellite this morning Ike looks like a classic hurricane. The uncomplicated part of the forecast is in the next 2 days: Ike is forecast to move in a west or just south of west direction to a position near the southern Bahamas by Sunday morning. Some increase in strength is possible over the next day before Ike enters a shearing environment during the afternoon tomorrow, which would induce some weakening, yet still maintain Ike as a major hurricane.

Once near the Bahamas (on Sunday) forward speed slows and a turn toward the northwest begins. The exact location where this turn begins is impossible to predict this far in advance, though it obviously has severe ramifications for coastal impacts. Many of the models are hinting at a recurvature just off to our east in about 6-7 days, but we need to get a little closer to the event to be certain of that. Even if recurvature occurs, Ike should still be a major hurricane in 6-7 days.

A turn northward?

Possibly. And the forecast is a little more promising for EC Florida if the turn north had indeed begun.

The northerly shear (i.e., from north to south) beat the stuffing out of Hanna yesterday. At 5 AM this morning winds were at 50 MPH and the central pressure is 993 mb. Hanna is much closer to Hispaniola than the official forecasts ever contemplated. Just like Fay and Gus, a visit to Hispaniola appears to be required for tropical cyclones this summer.

We've had the airplanes flying in and around Hanna yesterday and today. The "easy" flight: a data gathering mission in a Gulfstream jet flying around, but nowhere near, the storm flew last night and logged extra data that was loaded into last night's forecast models. The "hard" flights (into the center of the storm) have also been flying to report the location of the center (good thing--figuring that out from a satellite loop isn't easy this morning). The "hard" flights report this morning that Hanna has begun to slowly move to the north. The 5 AM report was the first report of this motion, so I'm not entirely convinced it has started yet. Hopefully the motion is to the north and it is maintained for the next few days.

The "easy" misison data shifted the forecast tracks a little father off the EC Florida coast overnight. This is due in part to the storm motion toward the east over the last 12-ish hours. If Hanna maintains a motion to the north, then the forecast modeling should be a bit more accurate than it has been over the last few days (trying to solve an admittedly difficult modeling problem). The forecast still calls for landfall in South Carolina as a Cat 1 hurricane in 2-3 days.

Local impacts obviously will change with the forecast, since small wiggles in track can cause big problems in this case. The Navy Tracking Map (link in the right hand side menu bar) shows the expected wind speeds using the mutant circles. The outermost circle is the radius of 35 knot winds (about 40 mph). Subsequent circles are at 50 kts (about 58 mph) and 65 kts (75 mph). The current forecast has the 35 knot circle glancing the coast early Friday morning, so we'll get some wind and some rain. Since Hanna should be a fast mover, Fay-like rainfall amounts are not expected. It's still too early to figure if things will be closed on Thursday and/or Friday just yet.

Ike continues moving toward the west at 18 mph. He is expected to become a hurricane soon and the forecast has him as a strong Cat 2 storm in 5 days. Most of the models bend Ike to our south, save for two models that have Ike either farther north or recurving just off of our coastline (in 8 days). Too early to tell yet whether or not Ike will pose a problem for us yet.

Hanna coming close, Ike on the way

No, I haven't boarded up and left town. Just been busy at a soccer tournament and dealing with a sick cat...

Hanna is back down to a tropical storm this morning, with maximum sustained winds at 70 MPH and a central pressure of 987 mb. Hanna was in the right place at the right time yesterday with respect to the upper-level shear pattern--the shear actually helped to vent the top of the storm and allow the thunderstorms to blow up (if you will). The shear pattern has shifted today, and is now basically blowing the tops toward the southeast. The cyclone has lost some of its structure and kinda looks like, well, a big blob.

The upper-level shear from the north is not expected to move the low-level center toward the south. Hanna is wandering toward the west at 2 MPH. The low-level steering currents have collapsed as forecast. The current forecast expects Hanna to begin moving toward the northwest overnight tonight as a surface high pressure ridge builds in to the northeast of Hanna. Once Hanna begins to move, she should continue to pick up speed, and pass by our coast early Friday morning. This forecast brings tropical storm force winds to our area Thursday night into Friday morning. We might get another hurricane day on Thursday or Friday, depending upon how the forecast pans out.

The problem with the current forecast concerns how far Hanna drifts to the west before the turn toward the north begins. Obviously, the further west she goes, the closer to Florida she gets, which makes a bigger problem for us. The forecast becomes a lot easier once the motion to the north begins. None of the forecast models have Hanna making landfall south of Melbourne, and most indicate landfall somewhere in South Carolina. However, one little wiggle here or there could create a lot of problems for Florida, since Hanna will be moving parallel to our coast.

Tropical Storm Ike formed yesterday. This forecast remains rather uncomplicated, a rarity for us over the last few weeks. Ike is booking to the west at 15 MPH and should be located in the southern Bahamas (basically where Hanna is this morning) in 5 days--recurvature into the Atlantic seems rather unlikely. The fast motion toward the west is expected to continue, meaning that a huge change in direction would be unlikely (hurricanes moving at 15 MPH don't stop on a dime and change direction). For now, Ike would appear to be a threat to the eastern Gulf of Mexico in about 10 days, but we have to watch that one too.

And then there's TD#10, which should recurve out into the open Atlantic and give us a breather.

Edit: Fixed central pressure measurement.