Tropical Storms and Christmas Cards

It just seems wrong to be naming tropical storms once the Christmas cards begin flying (we got our first card today). In fairness, I believe we've had a named storm in the Atlantic basin in every month except for April, and in a record setting season such as this, anything is possible.

Gamma has formed this afternoon in the extreme western Caribbean Sea. It is basically in the same neighborhood as Wilma was about a month or so ago. It is not very organized at this time, and is only a minimal tropical storm (40 MPH) as of the 4 PM advisory. Tropical storm force winds do extend outward about 85 miles however. Satellite images over the last few hours show a cloud mass that is weakening (warmer tops in the IR imagry) a little. Gamma is in a high shear environment with a frontal zone to it's north, and the shear is forecast to increase even more over the next few days.

The forecast track is extremely uncertain right now. NHC has drawn a track across Florida that looks a lot like Wilma's track across Florida. It's a little too early to tell if this is the correct track, since the models are in no sort of consensus. This lack of consensus is not surprising; we see this all the time with developing tropical systems. It typically takes the computer models a day or so to really begin to grasp onto a solution. A few of the models weaken and disipate Gamma well south of Florida. Since Gamma is in a high shear environment, and the shear is forecast to increase, weakening to our south is a possibility. The one model that supports the NHC track has a stronger tropical storm (max sustained winds 60 MPH; possible Cat 1 gusts) along that Wilma-like track in the official advisory. Even on this course, since Gamma is a fair bit weaker than Wilma was, it probably will not have a huge effect upon us on Monday. As it stands right now, either of these two solutions are possible.