A little better organized, but should pass to our south

Overnight Gamma has not strengthened very much, but seems to have become better organized. Last night's upper-air (weather balloon) data located Gamma's circulation over a greater depth of the atmosphere than previous observations had indicated. Satellite images also support this increased organization. The implication of this is that Gamma will not dissipate quickly or quietly. Gamma has strengthened to maximum winds of 45 MPH, and tropical storm force winds now extend about 100 miles from the center.

The upper-air data also showed a break in the ridge currently to the north of Gamma, giving it an escape route out of the Caribbean. Gamma is currently moving toward the NW at 6 mph, but the turn toward the north and north east should begin over the next day or two. Once Gamma moves far enough north, the effects of the frontal system and upper-level trough of low pressure to the north should turn it quickly toward the north and east.

The official track has shifted south from yesterday's track. The thin black line (yes, I know we're not supposed to focus on the thin black line, but bear with me) now barely grazes the Keys. A number of the global forecast models continue to trap and dissipate Gamma in the Caribbean. Given the apparent increased organization overnight, and the opening of an escape route to the north of Gamma, this seems like an unlikely scenario. The intensity forecast calls for little strengthening during the next three days, which is a downward change from yesterday's forecast. The upper-level wind shear is large and formidable just to the north of Gamma, and will allow little (if any) strengthening.

Effects here will be minimal. Yes, it will rain on Monday, and yes, it will be a little breezy, but there's no reason to board up or stock up right now. Gamma would need to deviate far to the north of the current forecast track (which, of course, could change) for Melbourne to be in any real danger.