Gamma no longer a threat

Long story short...the shear got to Gamma:



This morning, Gamma is estimated to have 40 mph winds...though NHC really isn't sure the winds are even that strong. Movement is a slow northward drift at perhaps 2 mph. Doesn't look like much, does it?

The Weather Service flew the Gulfsteam mission last night. One problem in hurricane forecasting is that the storms are over the oceans, where we obviously don't have many humans launching weather balloons. So, as needed, the NWS will fly a Gulfstream Jet over the ocean and drop instruments from the plane (this time with a parachute, not a balloon) to obtain the measurements, which are fed into the weather prediction models. These Gulfstream obs tell us that the ridge to the north of Gamma in the low levels of the atmosphere is still present, and is stronger than we thought yesterday. Consequently, there is little chance Gamma will head north.

The model forecasts all reflect this, to varying degrees. Since Gamma isn't terribly well defined, model predictions can (and in this case, do) vary, but they are all well south of FL, which is the official forecast. Further, the vertical wind shear is expected to continue, and Gamma is expected to dissipate or be absorbed by an approaching front in the next 3-4 days.