Today is the day

Alberto has slightly weakened overnight, down to a 65 MPH tropical storm. Satellite presentation has also degraded overnight. The hurricane looks more like an extratropical winter-type storm (comma shapped cloud extending up to about SC in the image below) than a hurricane this morning, with dry air near the center just offshore near the Florida big bend area. It would seem that Alberto will not become a hurricane prior to landfall, which is expected around midday today.



Atmospheric flow patterns are expected to shove Alberto a little to its left (west) today then allow it to continue its northeastward track. This has decreased to likelyhood of tropical storm force winds impacting east central FL. Certainly gusts to tropical storm force can be expected (primarilly in the rainbands) but general winds are expected in the 20-25 MPH range.

Main Space Coast impact remains rain, which is all good for us. Radar estimated rainfall amounts in the western peninsula (where most of the rain has fallen) are in the 2 inch range, with a broad pocket of 3-6 inch rainfall from Sarasota to Tampa. Less rain has fallen on the east coast: radar estimated precipitation is generally less than an inch. The Melbourne Airport observed about 1.5 inches over the last couple of days, which is about an inch more than I collected at the hodo-hut. There is one band of showers and storms moving through (probably in the 7-8 AM timeframe this morning) and others will likely develop later today. As mentioned last night, some of these storms could develop tornados, which is the primary threat to our area.

Otherwise, most else in the tropics is quiet, and (to quote the Hurricane Center) "tropical storm formation is not expected through Wednesday".

Yes, the blog is alive

Ahhh, more than a few of you have wondered. Apologies to those looking for the blog. I meant to post today, but today was the first day of work after a long vacation and, well, that post just didn't happen. I'll go with a short post tonight (there is hockey on, after all, which technically means I'm still watching Hurricanes) with an update in the morning.

Alberto is a 70 MPH hurricane moving toward the northeast at 8 MPH. Hurricane warnings have been hoisted for much of the Florida Gulf coast, and the storm will probably make landfall there early Tuesday morning. It is not certain if Alberto will become a hurricane prior to landfall; currently it is forecast to do so. Alberto has moved away from the warmest Gulf of Mexico loop current, and is still in a sheared environment, so strengthening above minimal hurricane strength is not expected. Primary effects will be from the expected 8-10 foot storm surge along the Gulf coast; the wind and rain isn't really anything we haven't seen in the last two years.

In Melbourne, this is basically the thing we need to help extinguish some of our fires. Winds to tropical storm force right now is only a 50/50 proposition, and hurricane force winds are not expected here. Basically, we get a bit of rain (probably not enough, but every bit helps) and a bit of wind. Tornadoes are the biggest threat, since we are on in the storm-relative right front quadrant, which is the favored location for tornado formation in landfalling tropical systems.